格林基金尹子昕：央行呵护季末资金，债市震荡分化

Group 1 - The market is sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in liquidity during June, with concerns about cross-quarter funding pressures potentially leading to increased interest rate volatility [1] - The central bank's recent operations indicate a clear intention to maintain reasonable liquidity, conducting two reverse repurchase operations this month to alleviate concerns about a "liquidity crunch" [1] - Short- and medium-term bonds have performed well, leading to a decline in long-term interest rates, while bond funds are adopting a strategy of extending duration to lock in higher yields during the interest rate downcycle [1] Group 2 - Future market developments will depend on several factors, including the actual performance of funding rates in the last few trading days of June and early July, which will validate the central bank's supportive measures [2] - The market will also monitor whether institutions continue to extend duration and if the consensus expectations can be sustained [2] - The timing of the central bank's announcement to restart bond purchases is crucial; if short-term benefits do not materialize as expected, the bond market may face a correction similar to the first quarter [2]