避险热度短暂熄火，黄金凭何稳坐中长期投资 “C 位”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran have temporarily boosted gold prices, but the long-term relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold will be a key factor influencing gold's investment value [1][2][4]. Group 1: Short-term Market Reactions - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, gold prices initially surged to around $3,400 per ounce but quickly retreated as the market assessed the limited risk of escalation in the conflict [2]. - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran further reduced market anxiety, leading to a decline in gold prices [2]. Group 2: Long-term Gold Investment Trends - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2020, gold has gained favor as a safe-haven asset, with 95% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, providing strong support for gold prices [3]. - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations and ongoing geopolitical risks are expected to create a safety net for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Dollar and Gold Relationship - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish signals and the potential for limited interest rate cuts may exert downward pressure on gold prices if geopolitical risks remain contained [4]. - However, the increasing U.S. national debt and the use of monetary policy as a financial weapon are leading to a crisis of confidence in the dollar, prompting countries to adjust their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold allocations [4]. - The significant growth in global central bank gold reserves over the past decade is diminishing the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency [4]. Group 4: Strategic Value of Gold - In the context of weakening dollar credibility, gold is positioned as a crucial asset for risk diversification and value preservation [5]. - The ongoing global uncertainties and shifts in U.S. monetary policy will continue to dominate the logic behind gold price movements [5].