【财经分析】国际医药巨头加速来华“扫货” 中国创新药估值迎重塑

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by active business development (BD) transactions and favorable policies, leading to improved revenue expectations for innovative drug companies starting from mid-2024 [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs saw increases of 2.25% and 1.15% respectively on June 24, with notable stock price rises for companies like Rongchang Biopharma (6.38% increase in A-shares) and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (over 9.5% increase in H-shares) [1]. - The A-share innovative drug sector has risen nearly 25% from its low on April 8 to June 23, with a total inflow of 945 billion and financing purchases of 1,148 billion [4]. Group 2: Business Development Trends - There has been a significant increase in "outbound" BD transactions for Chinese innovative drugs, with major deals such as the 6.7 billion USD agreement between Heptares and Otsuka Pharmaceutical [2]. - The trend of international pharmaceutical companies acquiring innovative drug projects before commercialization is becoming more common, driven by the need to replenish their pipelines due to patent expirations [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Companies like Saint Noble Bio are forecasting substantial profit increases, with expected net profits for the first half of 2025 projected to grow by 253.54% to 332.1% year-on-year [4]. - A total of 17 commercialized innovative drug companies are expected to achieve 913 billion in product sales revenue in 2024, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [5]. Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policies have been implemented to support innovative drug development, including expedited clinical trial approvals and a multi-layered insurance system that combines basic medical insurance with commercial insurance [6]. - The introduction of commercial health insurance for innovative drugs is expected to enhance the market environment, transitioning from reliance on basic medical insurance to a dual support system [6]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to ongoing policy support, technological advancements, and international expansion, with a potential for sustained valuation reassessment [7]. - Increased investment in innovative drug companies is expected, although caution is advised regarding potential overvaluation in some cases [7].