HIMS Stock To $25?

Core Insights - Hims & Hers Health experienced a 35% stock crash following the termination of its partnership with Novo Nordisk, raising concerns about its long-term viability in the weight-loss drug market [2][3][11] - The partnership, which began in April 2025, was expected to provide access to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, significantly contributing to HIMS's stock surge of 150% earlier in the year [3][4] Partnership Details - The collaboration was short-lived, lasting only two months, as Novo Nordisk cited HIMS's "illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing" practices as reasons for the termination [4][5] - HIMS's continued sales of personalized compounded versions of semaglutide conflicted with the partnership's goals, leading to a fundamental tension in the weight-loss drug market [5][6] Valuation and Market Reaction - Following the stock crash, HIMS trades at approximately seven times trailing revenues, more than double its five-year historical average of three times revenues [7][8] - If HIMS were to revert to its historical valuation multiple, the stock could fall to around $25, indicating a potential further decline of 40% from current levels [8] Future Outlook - HIMS can continue selling personalized obesity treatments, but faces regulatory uncertainties and the loss of a significant revenue stream from Wegovy [9][10] - The company's remaining business model may not generate sufficient growth to justify its current premium valuation, as the personalized approach is unlikely to match the scale of direct Wegovy sales [10][11] Investment Considerations - The situation represents a shift in the investment thesis, suggesting that investors should be cautious and avoid "buying the dip" due to the altered growth prospects and increased regulatory risks [11][12] - The market's reaction indicates that the loss of a primary growth catalyst can lead to significant declines, and future growth pathways for HIMS are uncertain and likely less lucrative [12]