油价下跌推升欧元、日元 市场聚焦美联储主席证词

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee amid political pressure for significant rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are becoming more pronounced, with members supporting early easing policies conflicting with Powell's "patience" stance [1] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian notes that political influences may be affecting FOMC decisions, potentially disrupting fixed income and foreign exchange markets [1] Group 2: Currency Movements - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near eight-day high, supported by reduced demand for the dollar as a safe haven and a narrowing yield spread between German and U.S. two-year bonds [3] - The eurozone's inflation rate could decrease by 0.3 percentage points for every $10 drop in oil prices, providing room for future European Central Bank policy adjustments [3] - The British pound is expected to recover against the euro after a weak June, with historical trends suggesting poor performance for the euro against the pound in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.4, and the Business Expectations Index jumped to 90.7, although the impact on exchange rates is limited [3] - The UK manufacturing sector is under significant pressure, with the most severe order contraction reported since January, amid rising energy and labor costs [6] - Japan's core CPI remains high, and recent PMI data has improved, increasing market expectations for potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan [7]