黄金跌势不止，“黄金平替”下半年还能涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - Platinum is experiencing a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of 33% from May 15 to June 24, 2023, and over 44% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with gold's 26.8% increase during the same period [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in platinum prices is driven by a combination of supply shortages and a shift in investor sentiment, as geopolitical instability and tariff uncertainties have widened the price gap between gold and platinum [1][3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 30 tons in the global platinum market for 2025, primarily due to insufficient long-term investment in South African mines and challenges in recycling automotive catalysts [3][10]. Demand Trends - Platinum demand saw a 10% increase in Q1 2025, with jewelry demand rising by 9% and investment demand surging by 28% to 14 tons. Notably, China's platinum bar demand grew by 140%, surpassing North America as the largest retail investment market [3][10]. - The jewelry market for platinum is recovering, with increased consumer interest as gold prices rise, leading to a resurgence in platinum jewelry sales [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The Gold-Platinum Ratio is currently around 2.75, indicating that platinum may be undervalued, which is attracting more investment [4][9]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in platinum futures positions, with total open interest rising from 70,592 contracts on May 22 to 77,787 contracts by May 30, reflecting a warming market sentiment [4][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there is a reasonable narrative for a bullish trend in platinum, caution is advised as the market may not sustain linear growth. The automotive industry's demand decline and potential supply increases could limit long-term price growth [9][10]. - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to show a deficit of approximately 41.2 tons in 2025, with demand growth expected at 10.8% [10].