汽车视点 | 进口量同比大跌33%，仅占出口6%！中国汽车进出口“冰火两重天”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive import and export landscape is undergoing a historic reversal, with exports significantly outpacing imports for the first time in over a decade [1][4]. Import Market Trends - China's automotive import volume has been in a continuous decline since peaking at 1.43 million units in 2014, with a projected total of 700,000 units in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year decrease and a 51% reduction from the peak [2]. - In the first five months of 2025, imports fell to 180,000 units, a 33% decline year-on-year, representing only 6% of the export volume [1][2]. - Traditional import markets, particularly from Germany and Japan, continue to dominate but are experiencing significant volume declines, with luxury brands like Rolls-Royce and Bentley seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. Export Market Growth - The export market is experiencing robust growth, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2025, reaching 2.83 million units [1][4]. - The average annual growth rate for exports has exceeded 50% since 2021, with 2023 exports surpassing 5.22 million units and projections of 6.41 million units for 2024 [4][5]. - The share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in total exports has risen from 27% in 2020 to 46% in 2025, with significant growth in the export of electric vehicles [4][5]. Challenges in the Export Market - Despite strong export figures, the industry faces challenges, including inventory pressures due to market fluctuations in Russia and competition from Western automakers advancing hybrid technology [6][7]. - The decline in export average prices indicates ongoing challenges in the high-end market segment, despite improvements in overall export quality [7]. Future Outlook - The dual strategy of "technology + localization" is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese automotive brands in international markets, with projections of 5.7 million passenger vehicles exported by 2025 [9]. - Companies are increasingly establishing overseas production facilities to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance market presence, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and South America [8][9].