兴银理财叶予璋：市场进入以大类资产配置为核心的新阶段

Core Viewpoint - Asset management institutions are shifting towards a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes stocks, bonds, gold, market-neutral strategies, and overseas assets to achieve relatively stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The evolution of China's low-interest-rate environment mirrors that of overseas markets, where initial strategies focused on credit exploration, leverage, and duration have lost profitability due to the narrowing of credit and term spreads [1]. - The current market has transitioned to a new phase centered on diversified asset allocation, which, despite its theoretical effectiveness, is now favored over fixed-income strategies that were previously attractive due to low volatility and high Sharpe ratios [1]. Group 2: Optimal Asset Allocation Criteria - An ideal diversified asset allocation strategy must meet three key conditions: low correlation between assets (below 0.2), the ability to generate returns without relying on market price fluctuations, and immunity to macroeconomic volatility [2]. - Four to five asset classes that meet these criteria include stocks, bonds, commodities represented by gold, market-neutral strategies (quantitative and macro hedging), and overseas assets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Outlook - Asset management institutions need to establish defensive mechanisms to address extreme tail risks, focusing on two dimensions: using derivatives to hedge against interest rate risks and preventing global liquidity tightening or sudden inflation shocks [2]. - In the current low-interest, low-inflation environment, a risk parity strategy between stocks and bonds may become the optimal choice in the next 1-2 years, as the bond market still has downward potential while the stock market is at a valuation bottom with significant upside potential as the economy recovers [2].