单月顶去年4个月！5月光伏装机量同比增长近4倍，下半年能否延续狂飙之势？

Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry in China is experiencing a significant surge in installation capacity, with a notable increase in new installations in May 2025, raising concerns about potential demand exhaustion in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Installation Data - In the first five months of 2025, the newly installed solar capacity reached approximately 198 GW, with May alone contributing 93 GW, indicating a substantial increase compared to previous months [1]. - The total new installations for 2024 are projected to be 278 GW, with May's installation amount equating to the total of the previous four months [1]. - The installation capacity in April was 45 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 215%, while May's figure represented a staggering 388% year-on-year growth [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in installations is largely attributed to a policy issued in February 2025, which incentivizes projects completed before June 1, 2025, to align with existing pricing structures, leading to a rush in installations [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the profitability of projects initiated after June 1, 2025, has contributed to a "rush to install" phenomenon within the industry [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - In terms of production, the output of solar PV components saw a decline in May, with a 12.7% decrease compared to April, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand [3]. - Forecasts for June suggest a continued decrease in production, with estimates dropping to around 53 GW, as demand is expected to diminish following the installation rush [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential "off-season" for the solar industry in June and July, contrasting with previous years [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the anticipated pressure on installation volumes in the second half of the year, experts suggest that the overall growth for the year remains likely due to ongoing demand for components and projects [5]. - The market is expected to experience low demand until at least August, with manufacturers facing uncertainty regarding new orders [4].