智通财经网·2025-06-24 13:57Core Viewpoint - The interest in the US dollar is declining among investors, even during market turmoil, which contrasts with historical trends where the dollar was typically sought as a safe haven [1][2][5]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - Analysts from major banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have noted changes in the "cross-currency basis swap," indicating a decrease in demand for the dollar relative to other currencies like the euro and yen [1][5]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking its worst performance since its inception 20 years ago, reflecting growing skepticism about the dollar's status as a safe haven [5]. - There is a significant cross-border capital flow from the US to Europe, suggesting that European investors are withdrawing funds from the US [9]. Group 2: Central Bank Trends - A survey by OMFIF revealed that one-third of central banks managing trillions in reserves plan to increase investments in gold, euro, and renminbi, indicating a shift away from the dollar [10][13]. - The political environment in the US has made 70% of surveyed central banks hesitant to invest in the dollar, a significant increase from previous years [13]. - The euro is becoming the most favored currency among central banks, with 16% planning to increase their euro holdings in the next 12 to 24 months, up from 7% a year ago [13]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks remain, as evidenced by recent tensions in the Middle East, which temporarily boosted the dollar's value [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policies and the Trump administration's decisions have contributed to the current market dynamics and investor sentiment towards the dollar [5][10].