Can Deere Sustain Its 5-Year Double-Digit Dividend Growth Streak?

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company has demonstrated strong dividend growth, making it a notable income-generating stock in the manufacturing farm equipment sector, with a current dividend yield of 1.24%, surpassing the industry average of 1.10% [1] Dividend Growth - Deere has increased its dividend eight times over the past five years, including two hikes in both fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024, raising the quarterly payout from $0.76 to $1.62 per share, resulting in a five-year dividend growth rate of 18.2% [2][11] - The company's current payout ratio stands at 31%, which is higher than the industry's average of 24.71% [1] Shareholder Returns - In fiscal 2020, Deere returned $4.76 billion to shareholders, representing 36% of its cash flow from equipment operations, and this figure increased to $6.9 billion in fiscal 2024, accounting for 81% of cash flow from equipment operations [3][11] Financial Performance and Forecast - Despite a decline in net sales starting in Q4 of fiscal 2023 and negative earnings growth since Q1 of fiscal 2024 due to reduced demand, Deere expects net income for fiscal 2025 to be between $4.75 billion and $5.50 billion, indicating a 28% year-over-year decline [4] - Cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion for fiscal 2025, with capital expenditures budgeted at $1.4 billion, ensuring sufficient free cash flow to cover current dividend payments [4][11] Debt and Capital Structure - Deere's debt-to-capital ratio is 0.73, one of the highest in the industry, which may impact its growth rate if the company prioritizes debt repayment or capital spending [5] Comparison with Peers - Caterpillar Inc. offers a higher dividend yield of 1.69% and has a payout ratio of 26.91%, with a five-year dividend growth rate of around 8% [6][7] - AGCO Corporation has a lower dividend yield of 1.13% and a more conservative payout ratio of 20.8%, having paused dividend increases in 2020 and issued a lower special dividend in 2024 [8][9] Stock Performance and Valuation - Deere's shares have increased by 21.6% this year, slightly outperforming the industry growth of 20.9% [10] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24.60, compared to the industry average of 23.27, indicating it may not be a compelling value proposition at current levels [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 26.5%, with a revenue drop of 15% expected [13] - However, earnings for fiscal 2026 are projected to grow by 17%, with revenues increasing by 7.3% [13]