从历史到现实：日本财政困局的延续与启示 —— 读《日本的财政危机：摆脱危机的体制机制变革努力(1975-2000)》

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing crisis in Japan's bond market, drawing parallels to historical fiscal challenges faced by the country, particularly from 1975 to 2000, as analyzed in the book "Japan's Fiscal Crisis: Efforts to Escape the Crisis through Systemic Mechanism Reform (1975-2000)" [4][8]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Crisis - The recent auction of Japan's 40-year bonds ended poorly, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.21, the lowest in 11 months, amid rising long-term bond yields [4]. - The current turmoil in Japan's bond market is linked to historical fiscal issues, suggesting a cyclical nature of the crisis [4][8]. - The book provides insights into Japan's fiscal crisis from 1975 to 2000, highlighting structural flaws in the budget system that are relevant to understanding today's challenges [4][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Mechanisms - The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing (QE) policy, initiated in the early 2000s, evolved from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) established in the 1970s, which aimed to support public sector financing [5][6]. - As of December 2022, the Bank of Japan held 52% of the national debt, indicating a non-market approach to maintaining debt circulation, which has led to market instability following a reduction in bond purchases [6][10]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Spending Patterns - Japan's reliance on public works spending has shifted to social security expenditures, with social security spending constituting 35% of the fiscal budget in 2023, reflecting a new rigid spending trap [7][8]. - The historical pattern of "public works state" has transformed into a "social security dependency," perpetuating the relationship between interest groups and bureaucratic systems [7][8]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Reform Challenges - The political landscape in Japan is characterized by policy rigidity and entrenched interests, making structural reforms difficult despite repeated attempts by the government [11][12]. - The lack of political consensus on fiscal reforms, as evidenced by stalled negotiations on income tax thresholds, mirrors the challenges faced in the 1990s [11][12]. Group 5: Lessons and Implications for Global Policy - The unique aspects of Japan's fiscal crisis, including policy rigidity and entrenched interests, offer lessons for global policymakers, emphasizing the need for structural reforms alongside fiscal expansion [12][13]. - Effective budget constraints and breaking the cycle of bureaucratic and political entrenchment are essential for achieving sustainable fiscal recovery [12][13].