制造业迎来转机？德国6月PMI初值恢复增长引猜测

Group 1 - The German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose in June, increasing from 48.5 in May to 50.4, marking the highest level in 34 months and surpassing the 50 threshold, indicating potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - The services sector in Germany continued to contract in June, but the pace of decline slowed significantly, with the PMI rising to 49.4 from 47.1 in May, suggesting an improvement in business activity [1] - Four German economic institutions have raised their growth forecasts for 2025, anticipating a recovery after two consecutive years of economic contraction [1] Group 2 - Investor confidence in Germany has increased, partly due to expectations of significant government spending increases from the new government [2] - The latest data from the Federal Statistical Office indicates a rise in manufacturing order demand, with a 4% year-on-year increase in April's order backlog, primarily driven by the automotive sector [2] - Major companies' leaders, including Deutsche Bank and Siemens, participated in the German Industry Day, where the Chancellor emphasized the need for trust between government and business [2] Group 3 - The German Industrial Association (BDI) expressed concerns about uncertainties facing German companies, predicting that the recovery will be slow and challenging [3] - BDI Chairman highlighted various "flashpoints," such as tariff conflicts with the U.S., and emphasized the importance of implementing government measures like tax cuts and energy price reductions to stimulate the economy [3] - The German central bank's president noted that the economic outlook remains uncertain, largely dependent on the progress of tariff negotiations between Germany and the U.S. [3]