鲍威尔重申双重使命目标 担忧关税政策成“风暴眼”

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy remains solid despite trade policy uncertainties, with a low unemployment rate and inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [1] - The first quarter GDP growth was impacted by short-term fluctuations in net exports, but private domestic final purchases (PDFP) grew at a steady rate of 2.5% [2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in May, nearing "maximum employment" levels, with moderate wage growth not causing significant inflationary pressure [2] Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve reaffirms its dual mandate of supporting employment while ensuring price stability, indicating no short-term interest rate adjustments due to the economy's "good position" [3] - The process of reducing the balance sheet has further slowed to ensure a smooth transition to an ample reserves environment [3] Tariff Risks - Recent tariff policies pose dual risks: potential increases in import prices could exacerbate short-term inflation, and declining business confidence may lead to reduced investment and consumption, impacting economic growth [4] - Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored at 2%, but the "second-round effects" of tariffs may prolong price pressures, necessitating close monitoring [4] Policy Framework Enhancement - The Federal Reserve is actively listening to feedback from businesses, communities, and households through outreach activities to optimize its monetary policy framework [5] - Regional issues such as agricultural credit costs and labor matching are highlighted as critical feedback for balancing policy benefits and drawbacks [5] Forward-Looking Approach - The Federal Reserve will respond to economic uncertainties with "patience and determination," prioritizing the stability of inflation expectations while avoiding excessive tightening that could suppress the labor market [6] - Future assessments will consider the impacts of tariffs and supply chain adjustments to ensure a soft landing for the economy [6]