降息预期卷土重来! 市场真金白银押注“全球资产定价之锚”跌向4%

Core Viewpoint - Traders in the U.S. Treasury market are heavily betting on a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, as indicated by Chairman Powell's dovish signals in Congress [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Expectations and Movements - Significant options betting has occurred, with at least $38 million in premiums paid for call options on 10-year Treasury bonds, targeting a drop in yields to 4% or below [1][4] - The market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut this year, with expectations for two cuts in September and December [5][22] - The 10-year Treasury yield has recently dipped below 4.3%, marking its lowest level since early May [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by 5.4 points to 93, below economists' expectations, contributing to the dovish sentiment in the market [6] - The decline in consumer confidence reflects a significant drop in expectations for future business conditions, indicating potential economic weakness [6] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in open interest for August call options on the 10-year Treasury, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards a yield drop [9][10] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards a bullish stance, with traders paying higher premiums to hedge against falling yields [19] Group 4: Broader Market Implications - A decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% could alleviate pressure on risk assets, particularly benefiting technology stocks and other high-growth sectors [24][25] - The current yield levels are critical as they serve as a key input in valuation models for equities, influencing the overall market sentiment [25]