Group 1 - US Treasury yields continued to decline significantly due to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a drop in international oil prices, which fell over 6% for the second consecutive day [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, indicating that if inflation remains controlled, interest rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later [1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in July is currently at 17.1%, while the probability for September exceeds 83% [3] Group 2 - The US consumer confidence index for June dropped to 93, below economists' expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about the impact of increased import tariffs on the economy [3] - A decline in the short-term expectations index for income, business, and employment markets suggests potential recession signals, as it fell to 69, below the 80 threshold [3] - The previous rebound in consumer confidence was attributed to easing trade tensions, but renewed uncertainty from US economic policies and escalating tensions in the Middle East have dampened optimism [3]
鲍威尔谈及提前降息 美债收益率全线走低
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-25 01:34