Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-06-25 02:38Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon market is experiencing a significant decline, with core product prices dropping sharply due to oversupply and weak demand, leading to widespread losses in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The price of DMC, a core organic silicon product, fell below 10,500 yuan per ton, representing an approximately 83% decrease from the peak in September 2021, and a cumulative decline of over 23% this year [1]. - The average transaction price has dropped below the cost line, resulting in the industry facing widespread losses [1]. - Supply growth is outpacing demand, with production expected to reach 2.533 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, while demand is projected at 2.191 million tons, a growth of 18.4% [1]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Impact - Trade tensions, particularly the U.S. tariffs on organic silicon products, have increased export costs for Chinese ordinary silicone rubber products by 15% to 20%, impacting the $2.28 billion trade market between China and the U.S. [1]. - The overall performance of listed organic silicon companies has declined in the first quarter, with significant drops in revenue and net profit across multiple firms [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The primary challenge for the organic silicon sector is the excessive new production capacity, with a projected 24.2% year-on-year increase in production capacity for 2024, marking the peak of the current expansion cycle [2]. - Despite short-term challenges, there are long-term opportunities as policies indicate continued development in real estate, which may boost demand for construction sealants [2]. - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-end and emerging fields, such as medical personal care, photovoltaic films, and automotive sealing components, which are expected to grow at an annual rate exceeding 15% [3].