澳大利亚通胀超预期降温 7月降息箭在弦上？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in May, which is below economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut next month [1] - The trimmed mean CPI, a key inflation indicator monitored by the central bank, fell from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The main contributors to annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9%), housing (+2%), and tobacco and alcohol, while electricity prices decreased by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in July surged from 80% to over 90%, indicating strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The RBA had already cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% last month, marking the second policy easing of the year, as policymakers believe the risk of rising price pressures has diminished [4] - The Australian economy is showing signs of a deflationary trend, which provides the RBA with the confidence to consider further rate cuts while maintaining a stable inflation environment [4]