Rithm Capital's Sector Comparative Analysis - Part 2 (Includes Q3 + Q4 2025 Dividend Projection)

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics compared to peers, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Part 1 Summary - RITM's book value as of March 31, 2025, is compared to 17 mREIT peers to enhance understanding of its financial standing [2] - The analysis aims to provide insights into RITM's performance relative to its peers, particularly in terms of dividend sustainability [4] Part 2 Summary - Part 2 focuses on RITM's dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics compared to 17 mREIT peers [3] - RITM's dividend history shows an increase from $0.35 per share in Q3 2014 to $0.50 by Q4 2019, followed by a cautious reduction to $0.05 during Q1 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [13] - RITM's dividend was increased to $0.25 per share in Q3 2021 and has remained constant since, contrasting with many peers that reduced dividends [15] Dividend Analysis - As of Q1 2025, RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per share, resulting in a TTM dividend yield of 8.78% and an annual forward yield of 8.07% based on book value [16] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) is a key metric for assessing dividend sustainability, with core earnings of $171.1 million reported for Q1 2023 [21] - The quarterly dividend distributions payout ratio for RITM has been attractive, with ratios of 71%, 41%, 43%, and 49% for Q1 to Q4 2023, respectively [21] Future Projections - RITM is projected to maintain a very high probability (90%) of a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q3 and Q4 2025 [30] - The estimated current book value as of June 20, 2025, is projected at $12.65 per share, with a price target of approximately $13.30 [36] Comparative Metrics - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield are modestly below average compared to its peer PMT, indicating a potential cushion for future dividend sustainability [28] - The analysis includes various metrics such as leverage ratios, core earnings, and dividend sustainability to provide a comprehensive view of RITM's financial health [17][30]