中美及中加关系有所缓和 菜籽油短期内偏空思路

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in canola oil futures indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9468.00 yuan, closing at 9480.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The short-term outlook for canola oil is bearish, with support levels identified between 9400-9420 yuan and resistance levels between 9750-9790 yuan [1] - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly increased week-on-week, contributing to a relatively loose supply-demand situation [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests a short-term bearish outlook for canola oil, citing the significant drop in crude oil prices as a negative influence on the profitability of blending vegetable oils with biodiesel [1] - Dayue Futures anticipates a range-bound trading scenario for canola oil, with expected fluctuations between 9300-9700 yuan [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the upcoming hearings on U.S. biodiesel production expectations and the evolving trade relations between China and Canada [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of canola from overseas is expected to be tight, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to a mixed outlook for canola prices [1] - The USDA's projections for South American production in 2024/2025 are relatively high, which may influence global oilseed prices [1] - The Indonesian B40 policy is expected to boost domestic consumption, although international biodiesel profits remain low, indicating weak demand [1]