关于降息，鲍威尔最新表态

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, as they are waiting for the economy to respond to various new policies, including trade policies [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since the beginning of the year, with future monetary policy decisions dependent on evolving data and risk assessments [1][2] - U.S. stock markets reacted positively to Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.19%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.43% on the same day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April, with the core PCE price index also increasing by 0.1%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [2] - Powell noted that consumer spending growth has slowed, and there is increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, particularly due to trade policy concerns [2] - Powell indicated that inflation pressures from tariffs are expected to become more apparent starting in June, and the Fed requires more time to assess the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation before considering rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates has led to dissatisfaction from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts, arguing that high rates increase government borrowing costs [3] - The Fed's economic projections suggest a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but there is significant divergence among policymakers regarding the balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [3][4] Group 4 - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy have emerged, with some officials supporting potential rate cuts while others predict economic slowdown and rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - New York Fed President John Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to around 1% this year, with unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation potentially reaching 3% before gradually returning to the 2% target [4] Group 5 - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a prediction of two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [5] - Barclays Bank's analysis indicates that the Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on the trajectory of tariff policies, with potential rate cuts varying based on inflation trends and economic conditions [5]