Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-06-25 09:10Core Viewpoint - Starbucks China is facing significant challenges in the competitive landscape, with declining performance metrics and increasing pressure from local coffee brands and new tea beverage companies, raising questions about its valuation of $5-6 billion [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2019, local coffee brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi have rapidly gained market share through aggressive pricing strategies and innovative marketing, leading to increased competition for Starbucks China [2][5]. - The ready-to-drink tea market is also saturated, prompting leading tea brands to expand into coffee, further intensifying competition in the coffee sector [2][5]. Group 2: Pricing and Product Innovation - Starbucks China has implemented significant price reductions, averaging a decrease of 5 yuan on several popular products, marking its first large-scale price adjustment in over 20 years [3][4]. - Despite these price cuts, Starbucks still struggles to compete on price, with local brands offering lower-priced options, such as Luckin Coffee's promotions at 6 yuan [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Starbucks China's revenue declined by 1.4% to $2.958 billion, marking its first negative growth in recent years [4][6]. - Same-store sales fell by 8%, with average transaction value also decreasing by 8%, indicating a challenging sales environment [5][6]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - As of March 2025, Starbucks China had 7,758 stores, while Luckin Coffee had expanded to 24,097 stores, highlighting a significant gap in market presence [7]. - Starbucks' market share has dropped from a peak of 60% to approximately 14%, while Luckin Coffee leads with a 35% market share [7][8]. Group 5: Valuation Comparison - Luckin Coffee's total revenue for 2024 was $4.724 billion, with a market capitalization of $10 billion, resulting in a P/S ratio of 2.1 [8]. - If Starbucks China is valued at $5-6 billion, it would correspond to a P/S ratio of 1.7-2.03, which is lower than Luckin's, reflecting its weaker growth prospects and market performance [8].