美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs despite multiple pressures, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 22 times, significantly above the long-term average of 35% [1] - The market's ability to sustain this upward trend depends on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations or if the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is currently facing historical challenges, including a new U.S. government's efforts to adjust global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, alongside uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 22 times is 35% higher than its long-term average, raising concerns about overvaluation [1][3] - A Bloomberg model suggests that the fair P/E ratio for the S&P 500 should be around 17.7 times, indicating that earnings would need to grow by 30% in the next year for the P/E to return to reasonable levels [3] - Investment strategists express caution regarding the sustainability of current market levels, suggesting that earnings expectations for the second half of the year may be overly optimistic [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to adjust policies, although lower inflation and weak labor recruitment may lead to earlier rate cuts this year [4] - Wall Street strategists recommend viewing any potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in technology and growth stocks [5]