不确定性主题下的全球经济，各国经济学家看到哪些风险和机遇？

Group 1: Global Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty has become the biggest theme in the global economy this year, driven by geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism [1][2] - Economic activity is slowing down due to high uncertainty, leading companies to hesitate in investment and consumers to reduce spending [2][3] - The impact of uncertainty is global, with fluctuations in U.S. economic data affecting GDP growth and other countries like China and Ireland increasing exports to boost their economies [2][3] Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - Despite facing uncertainties, China's economy shows strong resilience, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second half of the year [3][9] - The performance of China's economy in the coming quarters will depend on global economic trends and domestic policy measures [3][9] - The adjustment in the real estate sector and external uncertainties are key challenges for China, alongside weak indicators in PPI, CPI, and private enterprise investment [3][9] Group 3: Opportunities for Smaller Economies - Smaller countries must balance caution with policies that support business development amid trade tensions and uncertainties [4] - High tariff policies may create new trade opportunities for underdeveloped countries, but the outcomes depend on negotiation processes [4] Group 4: Financial Market Volatility - Economic uncertainty has intensified global financial market volatility, posing challenges for market participants [6] - Central banks are lowering interest rates in response to current conditions, but long-term tariff policy changes remain a core concern [6] - Maintaining flexibility and resilience is crucial for navigating unprecedented market volatility [6][7] Group 5: Globalization Trends - Despite rising protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, globalization is not expected to end, although its dynamics may change [8] - Companies need to adapt to new cross-border business opportunities and regulations as more countries engage in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements [8] - The evolving landscape of globalization requires a nuanced understanding, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, which have seen significant changes in trade and capital flows [8]