Primary win by pro-rent freeze Mamdani knocks shares of Flagstar bank on NYC market exposure

Group 1 - Zohran Mamdani is the likely favorite to win the New York City mayoral election, promising to freeze rent increases in stabilized units, which could negatively impact the profit profile of multi-family rental properties [2][3] - Flagstar, formerly New York Community Bancorp, experienced a 6% decline in shares following Mamdani's apparent victory in the Democratic primary, raising concerns about its real estate exposure [3][4] - Deutsche Bank estimates that $16 billion to $18 billion of Flagstar's multi-family loan portfolio is exposed to New York rent regulations, representing about a quarter of the bank's total loan book [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley estimates that the exposure drops to $11 billion to $12 billion when considering only buildings with more than half of units rent-regulated, indicating a significant portion of the loan portfolio is at risk [4] - Barclays analyst noted that current rent regulations are already limiting price hikes, suggesting that a short-term rent freeze may not significantly alter the investment thesis for Flagstar [5] - Office-focused real estate stocks with New York City exposure, such as SL Green Realty and Vornado Realty Trust, also faced pressure, with both stocks down nearly 5% [6]