弘则固收叶青：低通胀三部曲 0利率的阻碍

Group 1 - The current natural interest rate in China is approximately 1.84%, which is significantly above zero, indicating that excessive interest rate cuts could lead to credit contraction, counterproductive to economic growth [1] - China's potential GDP growth rate is estimated at 6.12%, and while the natural interest rate declines with growth potential, it remains at a high level, suggesting that China is far from a zero interest rate environment [1] - The concept of Effective Lower Bound (ELB) is particularly relevant for China, as traditional zero lower bound (ZLB) theories do not fully apply to emerging markets; capital outflows and balance sheet deterioration can lead to credit tightening if rates fall below a certain positive threshold [1] Group 2 - The experience of South Korea in the 1980s serves as a valuable reference; during economic transitions and export crises, Korea did not excessively lower interest rates but instead synchronized policy rates with economic growth while focusing on structural reforms and industrial upgrades [2] - The most effective strategy for economic stability and growth is not merely pushing interest rates to their limits but rather implementing structural reforms that enhance potential economic growth [2] - Policy discussions should shift from a narrow focus on interest rate levels to a broader perspective that includes structural reforms and the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies [2]