美联储降息预期升温 短债飙升推动收益率曲线创四年以来最陡

Group 1 - Financial markets experienced increased volatility, with short-term government bonds becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors as traders continued to ramp up expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][4] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating a consensus that short-term bond yields will decline faster than long-term yields, reflecting expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and concerns over future government bond supply [4] - Despite a disappointing auction of $70 billion in five-year government bonds, the prevailing expectation of interest rate cuts continues to dominate market direction [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, have signaled a dovish stance, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, rate cuts could begin as early as July, leading to significant adjustments in the interest rate swap market [4] - However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the need for more observation regarding the impact of trade policies on consumer prices, reiterating that the Fed will not act hastily [5]