PIMCO预警：全球债务高企挤压财政空间 央行降息或成应对衰退主要工具

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of PIMCO is that major global economies may experience a structural shift in policy tools to address future economic recessions, with central bank interest rate cuts becoming a more prominent response compared to fiscal stimulus measures [1][2] - PIMCO highlights that high public debt burdens in developed markets are constraining governments' ability to stimulate the economy through increased spending, as seen in the U.S. tax bill expected to raise national debt over the next decade and similar fiscal expansion in European countries [1][2] - The report indicates a key turning point where the low interest rate environment before the pandemic provided ample fiscal maneuvering space, but rising interest rates have significantly reduced this space, making monetary policy a more flexible tool for adjustment [1] Group 2 - PIMCO warns that while there won't be a sudden spike in debt levels in developed economies, persistent budget deficits combined with high interest rates will keep the bond market in a fragile state, limiting governments' ability to stimulate the economy through bond issuance during a recession [2] - The firm predicts that as countries increase bond issuance, investors will demand higher long-term bond yield compensation, potentially leading to a steepening yield curve where long-term bond yields continue to rise relative to short-term ones [2] - PIMCO emphasizes that there is currently no imminent debt crisis risk, as high borrowing costs may cause market volatility, but governments can achieve fiscal balance through spending cuts or tax increases [2]