太平洋证券：全球咖啡豆供需格局生变 云南产区迎精品化转型机遇

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese ready-to-drink coffee market has rapidly expanded from 51.6 billion yuan in 2019 to 172.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.3% [1][3] - Despite a low per capita consumption of 22 cups per year compared to mature markets, the lower-tier markets have become the core of growth, driving the number of stores to exceed 225,000 [3] - The industry is witnessing a dual-track development towards "cost-effective mass-market" and "high-end boutique" coffee due to Yunnan's premiumization policies [1][3] Group 2: Coffee Bean Supply and Production - Yunnan province accounts for over 98% of China's coffee bean production, with major production areas including Pu'er, Baoshan, Lincang, and Dehong [2] - The coffee bean industry in Yunnan faces structural issues such as low profits at the planting end and reliance on international futures pricing [2] - In 2023, Yunnan's coffee production reached 143,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, following a recovery from a decline due to global oversupply and quality fluctuations [2] Group 3: Import Dependency and Global Market Dynamics - China relies on imports for approximately 51% of its coffee beans, with Brazil being the largest source, accounting for 39% of import volume and 30% of import value [1] - The global coffee bean market is dominated by Arabica (60%-70% of production) and Robusta (35%), with major producers being Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, which together account for about 56% of global production [1]