兴业证券张忆东：港股牛市风雨无阻 看好成长股、红利资产和战略资产

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a long-term bullish trend driven by the strategic revaluation of Chinese assets and the revitalization of Hong Kong's financial environment, with a forecast of upward movement in the second half of 2025 [1][5]. Valuation and Market Dynamics - Hong Kong stocks are still considered to have high cost-effectiveness globally, with a current forecast P/E ratio of 10.7 times, which is at the 36th percentile since 2015 [2][4]. - The AH premium should not be the sole measure of Hong Kong's valuation, as it is significantly influenced by U.S. dollar liquidity and has been affected by high overseas interest rates since 2022 [2][4]. - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with net inflows exceeding 660 billion yuan from early 2025 to June 23, indicating a shift in market dynamics and increased participation from quality companies listing in Hong Kong [2][4]. Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The investment focus is shifting towards sectors such as new consumption and technology, which are expected to attract significant capital inflows in 2025, with non-essential consumption and information technology accounting for 70% of the net inflows [3][4]. - The long-term value of quality companies in Hong Kong is anticipated to be further explored and revalued, particularly in the context of the ongoing globalization of Chinese wealth [3][4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to face potential tactical adjustments in early Q3 2025, but the overall upward trend remains intact, with opportunities for strategic buying during fluctuations [6][8]. - The focus should be on high-yield dividend assets and growth stocks, particularly in technology, with recommendations to selectively invest in sectors like financials, telecommunications, and new consumption [7][8]. Long-term Trends - The long-term bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by the influx of quality companies and the strategic revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [5][6].