中国信保与商务部研究院联合发布 《2025年中国中小微外贸企业出口风险指数（SMERI）报告》

Core Insights - The "2025 China Small and Micro Foreign Trade Enterprises Export Risk Index (SMERI)" report indicates a continuous rise in credit risk faced by small and micro foreign trade enterprises in China over the past three years, primarily due to the complex changes in the international trade environment and increased payment risks from overseas enterprises [2] Group 1: Overall Credit Risk - The overall credit risk for China's small and micro foreign trade enterprises has been on the rise, attributed to the complexities in the international trade environment and heightened payment risks from foreign buyers [2] - Global macroeconomic risks have slightly decreased compared to 2024, indicating a recovery phase for the world economy, although growth momentum remains insufficient [2] Group 2: Regional and Sectoral Insights - Emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, Central Asia, and Africa are increasing their share of exports from China, with many countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia falling into the low to medium risk category [2] - Certain regions like Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Western Asia, and North Africa still exhibit medium to high risk levels, influenced by macroeconomic factors [2] Group 3: Trade Environment and Industry Risks - The report highlights that tariffs imposed by some countries on specific segments of the global value chain will create a "ripple effect," further increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment [3] - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles and light manufacturing are particularly vulnerable to trade barriers and fluctuations in raw material costs, while technology-intensive sectors like electronics and new energy vehicles face rising compliance costs and intense technological competition [3] - The interplay of trade protectionism, technological controls, and cost fluctuations is intensifying systemic risks within global supply chains [3] Group 4: Recommendations and Index Development - The report provides professional recommendations for small and micro foreign trade enterprises to mitigate and manage risks in the current environment [3] - This year's report expands the assessment to include risk indices for light manufacturing and new foreign trade business models, in addition to the previous evaluation of 60 countries and 7 industrial chain risks [3]