地产经纬丨集中土拍与协议出让“双轨”并进 上海土地供应格局生变？

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai land market is set to hold its sixth batch of residential land auctions on July 24, 2025, with a total of 8 plots covering an area of 233,100 square meters and a starting price of 23.67 billion yuan, contributing to an estimated total auction price exceeding 87 billion yuan for the year [1][2][15] Group 1: Auction Details - The sixth batch includes 8 plots, with a total area of 233,100 square meters and a starting price of 23.67 billion yuan [1][2] - The total number of plots auctioned in the first six batches of 2025 is 27, with an estimated total auction price of over 87 billion yuan [1][2] - The average premium rates for previous batches varied, with the first batch at 25.5%, the second at 30.0%, and the fifth at 16.1% [2] Group 2: Notable Plots - Key plots in the sixth batch include popular areas such as Xuhui Hengfu, Jing'an Dongsiwenli, and Hongkou Beiwaitan, which are expected to attract intense competition among developers [3] - The Xuhui Hengfu plot has a low plot ratio of 1.3 and a starting price of 163,600 yuan per square meter, potentially setting a new record for residential land prices in Shanghai and nationwide [3][5] Group 3: Agreement Transfers - The Xuhui Dong'an New Village group of plots, which recently sold for a total of 52.30 billion yuan, is noted for being the highest total price for a single plot in the country [6][5] - The agreement transfer method has become a significant approach in Shanghai's land supply, with 26 plots sold this year through this method, generating nearly 90 billion yuan, compared to 63.4 billion yuan from competitive auctions [7][15] - The agreement transfer process allows for direct negotiations between the government and developers, bypassing the competitive bidding process, which has led to a focus on high-value core areas [7][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The dual-track model of competitive auctions and agreement transfers is seen as a strategy to optimize land supply and enhance urban competitiveness in Shanghai [15] - The agreement transfer method is particularly effective in securing high-potential plots that require significant development capabilities, often involving state-owned enterprises and major developers [8][9]