Tryg A/S – Q2 2025 pre-silent newsletter

Core Viewpoint - Tryg is preparing for its Q2 2025 results release on July 11, 2025, and is conducting pre-close analyst calls to inform capital market participants about key factors influencing its recent financial performance [1] Insurance Revenue Growth - Tryg's insurance revenue is well-distributed across Scandinavia, with approximately 50% from Denmark, 30% from Sweden, and 20% from Norway. In Q2 2024, the company reported insurance revenue of DKK 9,545 million [2] Revenue Development - The commercial segment is expected to have a smaller spillover effect into 2025 due to the derisking of the corporate portfolio in 2024. Tryg reported a growth of 3.7% in local currencies for Q1 2025 [3] Claims Environment - Tryg's underlying claims ratio was 66.8% in Q2 2024, with expectations for stable to slightly improving performance towards 2027. The underlying claims ratio improved by 30 basis points in Q1 2025 [4] Weather Claims - Normalized weather claims for Q2 are expected to be DKK 80 million, which is 10% of the annual guidance of DKK 800 million. The quarterly distribution of weather claims is 40% in Q1, 10% in Q2, 20% in Q3, and 30% in Q4 [5] Large Claims - Tryg provides guidance for large claims of DKK 800 million annually, distributed evenly across quarters [6] Interest Rates Development - The expected discount rate for Q2 is approximately 2.5%, up from 2.3% in Q1 2025 [7] Run-off Expectations - Tryg has a long-term run-off expectation of approximately 2% towards 2027 [8] Investment Activities - Tryg's investment activities are divided into a match portfolio of approximately DKK 46 billion and a free portfolio of approximately DKK 16 billion as of Q1 2025. The free portfolio has been derisked and mainly consists of Scandinavian covered bonds and government bonds [9] Other Income and Costs - Other income and costs are guided between DKK -350 million and DKK -370 million quarterly, primarily driven by amortization of intangibles related to the RSA Scandinavia acquisition [11] Number of Shares - As of the end of Q1 2025, Tryg had 607,059,826 outstanding shares, with a total of 4,091,106 shares bought back in Q2, reducing the number of outstanding shares [12] Outlook Statement - Tryg aims for its highest ever insurance service result of DKK 8.0-8.4 billion by 2027, following an insurance service result of around DKK 7.2 billion in 2024 [13]