【财经分析】人民币汇率创年内高点！弱美元或继续推升市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by a combination of factors, including the weakening of the dollar, domestic economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency exchange by foreign trade enterprises [4][5][12]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On June 26, the RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 7.1620, an increase of 48 points from the previous trading day, reaching its highest point since November 2024 [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both showed a trend of appreciation, with the offshore RMB reaching 7.1525, the highest since November 8, 2024, and the onshore RMB peaking at 7.1570 [1]. - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB has appreciated approximately 2.3% against the US dollar, while the dollar index has declined over 10% [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index has decreased from 102.09 to 95.92, a drop of 5.47%, indicating that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the dollar is more a result of dollar depreciation rather than inherent strength of the RMB [8]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's appreciation is supported by a combination of domestic economic stability, flexible central bank operations, and the release of currency exchange demand [5][12]. - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to accelerate currency exchange is a key driver of the current RMB appreciation, influenced by fluctuations in the dollar index and concerns over dollar credit [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to experience low volatility and gradual appreciation in the second half of the year, with the overall trend remaining positive [4][12]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend globally is expected to further weaken the dollar, which may support the RMB's strength [14][15]. - The central bank's management of the RMB's exchange rate, particularly through the adjustment of swap premiums, indicates a cautious approach to avoid rapid appreciation [12][16].