美联储换帅传闻引发市场动荡 美元弱势与政治不确定性助力欧元走强

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has fallen to approximately 97.00, marking a three-year low, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [1] - The euro has risen to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching 1.173, while the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year high [1] - The Japanese yen has strengthened as the dollar depreciates, with the USD/JPY rate dropping below 144.00 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's government plans to lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to below 1%, primarily due to global trade risks from US tariff policies [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated for four consecutive trading days, influenced by slowing inflation data, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [3] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that interest rates will gradually decline, but the monetary policy will not follow a preset path, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance until inflation risks subside [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market sentiment is driven by three factors: rumors of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, easing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations influenced by Trump's tariff comments [1] - There is strong demand for put options on the dollar, indicating that traders view the dollar's decline as a key risk to hedge against [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro can break through the 1.17 level against the dollar, it may pave the way for further gains towards 1.20, supported by a favorable trade stance from US allies [6]