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上市首日暴涨25%!周六福加盟模式“狂飙”背后藏隐忧

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen jewelry brand Zhou Li Fu officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a six-year IPO journey, with an issue price of HKD 24 per share, and saw a 25% increase on its first trading day, reaching a total market capitalization of HKD 12.98 billion [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Journey - Zhou Li Fu's IPO process has been lengthy and challenging, initially applying to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2019 but facing multiple setbacks, including a halted application due to the investigation of its sponsor and questions regarding its business model [3]. - After switching to the Hong Kong market, Zhou Li Fu faced further delays, including a failed application in June 2024 due to an invalid prospectus, before finally obtaining approval in May 2025 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Zhou Li Fu's revenue grew from RMB 3.10169 billion to RMB 5.718195 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%, while over 50% of revenue came from franchise stores [5]. - However, net profit growth is projected to decline from 14.7% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2024, with gross margin decreasing from 38.7% in 2022 to 25.9% in 2024, indicating significant pressure on profitability [5]. Group 3: Business Model and Challenges - As of the end of 2024, Zhou Li Fu operated 4,129 stores globally, with 4,038 being franchise stores, accounting for 97.8% of its total outlets [6]. - The franchise model has both advantages and disadvantages; while it generates high gross margins, the increasing pressure on franchisees has led to the closure of 674 stores in 2024, a 37.5% increase from the previous year [6]. - The company acknowledged potential risks associated with franchise management, including the possibility of franchisees violating agreements and affecting the brand's reputation [6]. Group 4: Growth Strategies - Zhou Li Fu's online sales have become a significant growth driver, with a CAGR of 46.1% from 2022 to 2024, and online sales accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2024 [6]. - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used to expand and strengthen the sales network, enhance brand awareness, improve product supply and design capabilities, and for general corporate purposes [6].