Silver AISC at Multi-Year Low for PAAS: Can It Sustain These Levels?

Core Insights - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) reported a significant decrease in All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for its silver segment in Q1 2025, with AISC at $13.94, a 16% reduction year-over-year and well below the guidance of $21.00-$22.25 [1][9] Cost Performance - The year-over-year improvement in AISC was primarily driven by cost reductions at key mines, particularly at La Colorada, where AISC fell 29% to $19.72 per ounce due to enhanced ventilation conditions [2] - The Cerro Moro mine achieved a negative AISC of $4.40 per ounce, a significant improvement from $6.43 in Q1 2024, attributed to higher gold by-product credits and increased gold prices [3] - At the Huaron mine, AISC decreased by 6% to $13.09 per ounce, benefiting from lower treatment and refining charges and higher by-product credits from zinc and lead [3] Future Outlook - For 2025, PAAS anticipates the silver segment's AISC to be between $16.25 and $18.25 per ounce, indicating an improvement from the $18.98 per ounce in 2024, supported by ongoing cost benefits from La Colorada's ventilation upgrades and increased gold by-product credits from Cerro Moro [4] - The planned acquisition of MAG Silver Corp. could further reduce costs, as the Juanicipio project is expected to have an AISC between $6.00 and $8.00 per ounce in 2025 [5] Peer Comparison - First Majestic Silver (AG) reported an 11% year-over-year decline in AISC per silver equivalent ounce to $19.24 in Q1 2025, driven by the acquisition of Cerro Los Gatos, which added 2.3 million silver equivalent ounces of production [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, PAAS shares have increased by 41.8%, outperforming the industry growth of 31.3% and the Basic Materials sector's rise of 9% [8] - PAAS is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 17.10X, slightly below the industry average of 18.02X [10] Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for PAAS's 2025 earnings is $1.52 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 92.4%, with a 2026 estimate of $1.93, indicating a 27.2% rise [11]