深度｜136号文半年考：工商业储能如何穿越政策与市场的双重迷雾？

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Document No. 136 and the adjustment of electricity pricing policies in various provinces have led to increased uncertainty in the domestic commercial energy storage market, marking a critical point for the restructuring of business models in the energy storage industry [1][3]. Policy Uncertainty - Economic factors are the primary drivers for commercial energy storage, with the previous business model relying on "peak-valley arbitrage" to profit from price differences [3]. - Despite the national-level direction provided by Document No. 136, local implementation details are lagging, with only Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang issuing provincial-level documents, while other regions are still developing their guidelines [3][4]. - Some regions with significant fluctuations in renewable energy output still maintain mandatory energy storage requirements, complicating the transition to new business models [3][4]. Investment Decision Challenges - The current policy vacuum creates uncertainty for energy storage companies in project decision-making, as investment returns are heavily dependent on future revenue expectations [4]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new profit opportunities through "internal" and "external" circulation models to maximize returns despite reduced price differentials [4]. Industry Transition - The energy storage industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development, with a notable decline in installed capacity for electrochemical energy storage in the first quarter of this year [5]. - The market is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency and effectiveness, leading to more cautious and rational investment decisions [5]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage sector is experiencing a shakeout, with low-quality capacity expected to be eliminated as the industry matures [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by chaotic growth, with many companies entering the market with short-term profit motives, leading to unsustainable practices [7]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 has exposed the unsustainable nature of previous low-price competition, accelerating the exit of low-quality players from the market [7]. Future Outlook - The energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installed capacity expected to reach 70 million kilowatts by 2024, representing a 130% increase from the end of 2023 [6]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model that emphasizes software and service capabilities, with companies needing to excel in both hardware and software to remain competitive [8][9]. - The demand for energy storage is currently heavily reliant on mandatory storage policies, and the impact of Document No. 136 is anticipated to disrupt market demand, particularly for large-scale storage systems [9][10].