低价刺激短期消费增长 业内人士称鸡蛋价格上行拐点到来尚需时日

Core Viewpoint - Recent chicken egg prices in China have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with average prices rising to 7.28 yuan/kg as of June 26, 2023, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous week [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in egg prices is attributed to low inventory levels and stimulated consumer demand due to lower prices, despite concerns about the sustainability of this rebound due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [1][3]. - As of June 20, average inventory levels in production and circulation were reported at 0.95 days and 1.04 days, respectively, indicating a decline of approximately 10.38% and 10.34% compared to previous periods [3]. - Analysts predict that the supply of laying hens will continue to increase, with a theoretical growth of 0.75% in laying hen inventory expected in July [4][5]. Seasonal Influences - The traditional low season for chicken eggs typically occurs in June, with high temperatures and humidity affecting storage and quality, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for the market [3][4]. - The end of the plum rain season in mid-July is anticipated to improve storage conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in prices as demand for replenishment increases [6][7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Historical data suggests that chicken egg prices tend to rise significantly from the low point during the plum rain season to the peak during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with average increases ranging from 25% to 88% [7]. - Current market conditions indicate that while prices may stabilize at low levels in the short term, a significant rebound is expected post-plum rain season, with potential price peaks estimated between 3.8 yuan and 4.1 yuan per jin [7].