野村陆挺： 多方式提振消费 培育长期动能

Core Viewpoint - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted China's retail sector in the first half of the year, with May retail data showing unexpected growth, particularly in home appliances [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - In May, China's total retail sales reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances grew by over 50% year-on-year in May, indicating strong consumer demand driven by the trade-in policy [1][2]. - The trade-in policy has been identified as a key driver of consumption growth, with specific categories like home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture showing significant increases of 53.0%, 33.0%, and 25.6% respectively [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The economic outlook for the next few months remains positive, supported by the release of prior export orders and the ongoing impact of the trade-in policy on consumption [6]. - Recommendations for stimulating consumption growth include enhancing wealth and income through policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, as well as reforming social security and welfare systems [2][6]. - The need to create new consumption scenarios is emphasized, with examples like the Jiangsu province's city football league driving local economic activity in tourism, dining, and accommodation [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - China's manufacturing sector has shown significant advantages, with over 30% global market share and rapid advancements in key areas such as shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [4]. - The domestic innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing growth due to supportive policies and increased R&D investment, indicating a robust environment for technological advancement [4]. Group 4: International Market Competitiveness - Chinese companies that have survived intense domestic competition are demonstrating strong capabilities in international markets, reflecting their competitive strength [5].