里士满联储主席：经济前景不明 美联储应谨慎对待利率政策

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve should adopt a more cautious interest rate policy amid uncertain economic outlook, according to Richmond Fed President Barkin [1] - Barkin's views contrast with other Fed officials who suggest that the July policy meeting could be significant, potentially considering rate cuts if inflation continues to cool or the job market shows signs of weakness [1] - The Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged in the recent policy meeting, with median expectations indicating two rate cuts by year-end, although more officials believe only one cut may be necessary, or possibly none [1] Group 2 - Barkin expressed cautious optimism regarding current inflation data but highlighted new risks in the coming months, including rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions that could increase oil prices and impact business investment and hiring [1] - Concerns about potential "stagflation" pressures were raised, indicating a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high, with businesses beginning to cut back on hiring and investment due to uncertainties [1] - Long-term structural changes in the labor market, such as reduced immigration and increased reliance on AI and automation, may complicate the Fed's efforts to manage the economy [2]