Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations of continued low volatility in the short term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years, dropping below the 97 mark for the first time since March 2022, while the euro has reached its highest level against the dollar since September 2021 [2]. - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.16 mark, marking a new high since mid-November of the previous year [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the US dollar index has declined by approximately 10%, while the onshore RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.8% and the offshore RMB by over 2.3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is bolstered by recent economic data, including a 0.5% decline in the annualized real GDP for Q1, which is the first contraction in three years [2]. - The Chinese economy has shown stability, with steady growth in industrial output and retail sales, contributing to the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent performance of the Chinese capital market has led to increased cross-border capital inflows, further supporting the RMB [5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and safeguard economic and financial security [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between the US dollar and US equities is influenced by multiple factors, including growth differentials and monetary policy, rather than being linear [3].
美元指数三年多来首次跌破97关口 人民币创逾七个月新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-27 01:22