发电量和工业增加值“脱节”，或源于经济结构转型升级

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between industrial added value and electricity generation in China indicates a structural transformation in the economy, influenced by the transition from old to new growth drivers and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industrial Added Value and Electricity Generation - From January to May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while the cumulative electricity generation only grew by 0.3% [1]. - The disparity in growth rates is attributed to the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic systems, which has led to higher growth rates in electricity generation from smaller enterprises not captured in the large-scale statistics [3]. - The performance of large-scale industrial enterprises is stronger compared to small and medium-sized enterprises, as evidenced by the manufacturing PMI, which remains higher for large firms [3]. Group 2: Energy Consumption and Industry Performance - Different industries exhibit varying electricity consumption structures, with some high-energy-consuming sectors showing weaker performance while low-energy-consuming sectors are experiencing significant growth [5]. - The divergence between electricity generation and industrial added value reflects the ongoing transition in China's economic structure, with traditional sectors like real estate and chemicals slowing down, while emerging sectors such as computing and information technology are growing [5][6]. - The overall electricity consumption growth is slowing due to overcapacity in various industries, leading to a differentiation in the performance of large and small enterprises [6]. Group 3: Capacity Utilization and Future Outlook - Many manufacturing sectors are currently facing low capacity utilization rates, with most industries below the historical median of 50%, indicating a potential overcapacity crisis [6]. - The state of electricity generation growth lagging behind industrial added value is expected to continue until demand improves or supply adjustments take effect [6].