美元“跌跌不休” 海外基金悄悄入场押注人民币汇率补涨

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has entered a bearish phase, with the dollar index dropping approximately 10.9% year-to-date, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 at 96.99 [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated support for a rate cut in July, leading to heightened expectations among Wall Street for accelerated rate cuts [3][7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has surged to 23%, up from less than 15% a week prior, with some market bets reaching as high as 40% [3][7]. - Wall Street capital is increasingly betting on dollar depreciation, driven by a "buy the expectation" trading strategy as the market anticipates faster rate cuts [3][7]. Group 2: Speculative Positions and Dollar Weakness - Speculators' net short positions on the dollar have risen to $15.69 billion, the highest level since January [3]. - The expectation that the new Federal Reserve chair will align with President Trump's aggressive rate cut demands is contributing to the dollar's downward pressure [4][7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a further 5.7% depreciation of the dollar index over the next 12 months due to various economic concerns [7]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance and Market Sentiment - The offshore renminbi has appreciated to its highest level since November 2022, with the dollar trading at 7.1517 against the renminbi [5]. - The renminbi's appreciation has been relatively modest at around 3% compared to other major currencies, which have seen larger gains [5][9]. - Emerging market funds are increasingly shifting from bearish to bullish positions on the renminbi, anticipating a rebound due to easing trade tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts [6][10]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The broader context for the dollar's decline includes perceptions that the US economy is slowing faster than other regions, prompting capital outflows [8]. - The current high level of the US-China interest rate differential is limiting the renminbi's appreciation potential [10]. - Emerging market funds are adjusting their strategies in response to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with many now favoring the renminbi as a potential beneficiary of the dollar's weakness [10][11].