澳联储降息预期压制澳元走势

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing upward movement against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6559, with market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increasing significantly [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The one-month OIS rate has dropped to 3.7%, indicating a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month [1] - Cash rate futures suggest a 90% probability of a rate cut, with 90-day bank bill futures fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the expected rate down to 3.6% [1] - The bond market has already reflected these expectations, with the 3-year government bond yield falling to 3.6% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Analysts from UOB expect the AUD/USD to maintain a range-bound movement between 0.6465 and 0.6515 in the short term, with potential for wider fluctuations between 0.6385 and 0.6555 [1] - If the AUD/USD price breaks below the 0.6465-0.6460 range, it may find support around the 0.6400 level, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.6375-0.6370 [2] - A clear break below these support levels could shift market sentiment to bearish, potentially driving the AUD/USD down to 0.6300 and further to 0.6245 and below 0.6200 [2]