观茶|近20元一斤！新茶饮或面临“柠檬危机”

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of lemons, which have reached nearly 20 yuan per jin, are posing significant challenges for the new tea beverage industry, potentially leading to a "lemon crisis" [1][13]. Price Surge - Lemon prices have surged dramatically this year, with prices in Sichuan's Anyue reaching 15 yuan per jin, up from 3-4 yuan per jin last year, marking a 3-5 times increase [3][4]. - In Guangdong's Jiangmen, the price of fragrant lemons is nearly 20 yuan per jin, compared to only 5 yuan per jin last year [4]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The primary reason for the price increase is the supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by extreme weather conditions leading to reduced production in major lemon-growing regions [8]. - The export volume of lemons from Anyue has surged, reaching levels comparable to last year's peak season within just two weeks, resulting in tight market supply [9]. Impact on New Tea Beverage Industry - The significant rise in lemon prices is expected to create severe challenges for the new tea beverage industry, with varying impacts on different types of tea beverage franchises [13][14]. - Smaller brands and those relying on market-sourced lemons face direct cost pressures, risking profit losses [16]. Pricing Strategies - For a cup of lemon tea requiring 5-6 slices of lemon, one lemon can only make two cups, with each cup selling for around 4 yuan, leaving minimal profit margins [17]. - Some tea shops have adjusted prices or removed lemon-based products to mitigate the impact of rising costs [18][19]. Competitive Advantage of Major Brands - Leading new tea brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have established supply chain advantages, with their own lemon production bases, thus facing relatively smaller impacts from price increases [21][22]. - Mixue Ice City's signature lemon water remains priced at 4-5 yuan, while Gu Ming's is at 9 yuan, with no price adjustments made [23]. Future Outlook - Seasonal price fluctuations are expected, with supply constraints likely easing as new season lemons become available in September-October [24]. - The new tea beverage industry, particularly smaller brands, will need to explore cost control and product adjustment strategies to navigate the ongoing "lemon crisis" [25].