囤货潮退，世界贸易增长或将放缓

Core Insights - The WTO's latest assessment reveals a contradictory and uncertain global trade landscape, with strong growth driven by panic buying ahead of anticipated tariff increases, raising questions about sustainability [1][3] - The global goods trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021, indicating active trade above the normal level [1] Group 1 - The strong growth in trade at the beginning of the year is largely attributed to importers making large-scale purchases in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff hikes, leading to a temporary "stockpiling trend" [3] - The WTO warns that the current trade environment remains fragile, with significant uncertainties that could lead to a broader trade recession if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented [3] Group 2 - Among the indicators that make up the trade barometer index, export orders are the only category showing negative growth, with the "new export orders index" dropping to 97.9, indicating a contraction [3] - The report suggests that the strong growth in trade volumes observed in early 2025 may be a result of importers increasing purchases to avoid future costs, which could lead to a slowdown in trade growth later in the year as sellers reduce inventory [3]