Core Insights - Morgan Stanley projects New Oriental (EDU.US, 09901) to achieve a 13% year-over-year growth in core revenue (in USD) for Q4 2025, with core operating profit margin (OPM) expected to increase by over 1 percentage point, aligning with management guidance [1] - The upcoming shareholder return plan may act as a short-term catalyst, with a target price set at $48, corresponding to a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 16 times for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting a reasonable valuation considering a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings from 2026 to 2029 [1] Q4 2025 Outlook - Management maintains guidance for core revenue growth of 13% year-over-year in USD, or 15% in RMB, with overseas revenue up 8%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 9%, high school business revenue up 16-17%, and new business revenue up 32-35% [1] - Core operating profit margin is expected to increase by over 1 percentage point due to low base effects and cost control measures [1] FY 2026 Outlook - Management reiterates guidance for core revenue growth of 14-15% year-over-year in RMB, with overseas revenue projected to grow 0-5%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 10%, high school business revenue up 11-13%, new business revenue up 25-30%, and tourism business revenue up 15-20% [2] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow by 12%, with core operating profit margin expected to expand due to strict cost control [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit is projected at $581 million (operating margin of 10.7%) and non-GAAP net profit at $509 million (net margin of 9.3%) [2] Shareholder Return Expectations - It is anticipated that New Oriental will announce a regular shareholder return plan no later than the performance report for Q4 2025, with flexibility between cash dividends and stock buybacks [2] AI One-on-One Teaching Application - Revenue from the AI one-on-one teaching application will be included in the "Smart Books" category of K9 new business, set to launch on July 2 in New Oriental's live store, with pricing yet to be announced [2]
大摩：维持新东方(EDU.US,09901)“持有”评级 预计2025Q4核心收入同比增长13%