美欧关税博弈倒计时：德法立场分裂，欧盟已做好谈崩准备？

Group 1: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU officials anticipate prolonged negotiations with the US due to unclear final demands from the US side [1][5] - The EU is currently facing strategic divisions, particularly between Germany and France, regarding how to respond to US tariff threats [3][4] - The EU Commission President stated that all options are being considered, including preparations for a potential breakdown in negotiations [1][3] Group 2: Economic Impact on Germany - The German manufacturing sector is expected to face significant risks if the US implements its proposed tariffs, with a potential 2.8% shrinkage in overall manufacturing size and a 38.5% drop in exports to the US [6] - The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are projected to be the most affected, with value losses of 6% and 9% respectively [6] - Germany is urged to establish new bilateral agreements with countries like South America, India, and Indonesia to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [6][7] Group 3: EU's Trade Strategy - The EU is actively seeking to diversify its trade network, with leaders agreeing to consider signing free trade agreements with the South American Mercosur bloc [7] - The EU's proposal for zero tariffs on industrial goods contrasts sharply with the US's demands for unilateral concessions [3][4] - The EU aims to balance trade negotiations by offering to purchase strategic goods from the US in exchange for lower tariffs [3]