40% Upside For Merck Stock?

Core Insights - Merck is strategically positioning itself for growth despite facing the Keytruda patent cliff in 2028 by diversifying and expanding its pipeline [2][11] - The company has a robust pipeline with 20 new "blockbuster" drugs under development, collectively having a sales potential of $50 billion [3][11] - Recent drug launches and vaccines are contributing significantly to revenue, indicating a successful diversification strategy [4][11] Pipeline and Product Development - MK-1022 for non-small-cell lung cancer and MK-0616, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor, are key pipeline assets expected to exceed $5 billion in peak sales [5] - Winrevair, a treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension, achieved $280 million in sales in Q1 2025 and is projected to have peak sales of $3 billion [5][6] - Capvaxive recorded $107 million in Q1 2025 sales with a peak sales potential of over $2 billion [5] Acquisition Strategy - Merck's acquisition of Harpoon Therapeutics for $680 million enhances its immunotherapy portfolio, while the Acceleron deal has already boosted revenue [7] - The company has over $9 billion in cash reserves, positioning it well for further strategic acquisitions [7] Financial Valuation - MRK stock currently trades at around $80, valuing the company at 3.2 times its trailing revenues, below its three-year average P/S ratio of 4.4 times [8] - If MRK stock reverts to its historical P/S ratio, it could exceed $110, indicating nearly 40% upside potential [9] Market Challenges - Gardasil vaccine faces temporary challenges in China, but sales have risen in other regions, suggesting potential for recovery [9][10] - The transition from reliance on Keytruda to a diversified portfolio is critical for sustaining growth beyond 2028 [11][12]